Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016332 0.018489 0.020827 0.023549 0.026633 0.030019 0.034021
2025-08-31 0.012712 0.015629 0.019062 0.023401 0.028745 0.035119 0.043310
2025-09-07 0.010998 0.014308 0.018426 0.023934 0.031119 0.040191 0.052544
2025-09-14 0.009291 0.012655 0.017038 0.023175 0.031565 0.042663 0.058509
2025-09-21 0.008151 0.011553 0.016163 0.022881 0.032448 0.045626 0.065236
2025-09-28 0.007112 0.010444 0.015122 0.022185 0.032616 0.047513 0.070516
2025-10-05 0.006708 0.010177 0.015209 0.023061 0.035053 0.052763 0.081063
2025-10-12 0.006276 0.009813 0.015101 0.023605 0.037005 0.057417 0.091087
2025-10-19 0.005915 0.009514 0.015046 0.024202 0.039055 0.062347 0.101931
2025-10-26 0.005436 0.008977 0.014566 0.024064 0.039900 0.065420 0.110022
2025-11-02 0.005046 0.008544 0.014204 0.024070 0.040952 0.068873 0.118989
2025-11-09 0.004610 0.007994 0.013599 0.023607 0.041159 0.070910 0.125681
2025-11-16 0.004340 0.007708 0.013422 0.023875 0.042673 0.075341 0.137050
2025-11-23 0.004021 0.007308 0.013017 0.023709 0.043408 0.078481 0.146407
2025-11-30 0.003844 0.007147 0.013012 0.024250 0.045450 0.084094 0.160776
2025-12-07 0.003493 0.006633 0.012329 0.023481 0.044989 0.085077 0.166472
2025-12-14 0.003243 0.006285 0.011919 0.023183 0.045382 0.087661 0.175444
2025-12-21 0.002963 0.005858 0.011325 0.022478 0.044917 0.088548 0.181108
2025-12-28 0.002903 0.005853 0.011536 0.023365 0.047667 0.095916 0.200505
2026-01-04 0.002806 0.005766 0.011579 0.023917 0.049777 0.102167 0.218131
2026-01-11 0.002720 0.005696 0.011647 0.024521 0.052041 0.108900 0.237353
2026-01-18 0.002564 0.005465 0.011371 0.024382 0.052722 0.112394 0.249869
2026-01-25 0.002434 0.005278 0.011171 0.024387 0.053711 0.116604 0.264317